GAINESVILLE, Fla. – After declining for the first time since the end of World War II, Florida’s population grew once again last year, a hopeful yet tentative sign that the worst of the recession may have passed, according to the latest preliminary population estimates from the University of Florida (UF).

Stan Smith, director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research, estimates that Florida added a modest 21,000 residents between 2009 and 2010, but that follows a population decline greater than 56,000 between 2008 and 2009.

“Even though the state turned it around, it still represents the smallest population increase since the 1940s and does not make up for last year’s loss,” Smith said. “Florida’s population growth continues to be very, very slow by historical standards.”

Florida grew by more than 125,000 residents in every year from 1950 to 2008. It’s estimated that Florida added 21,285 residents during the past year, with its total population increasing from 18,750,483 on April 1, 2009, to 18,771,768 on April 1, 2010, Smith says. The previous year it lost an estimated 56,736 residents.

“Two years ago, the economy was deteriorating rapidly, while over the past year there have been some signs that it is leveling off or even improving slightly,” he says. “I think that’s the reason we’re seeing a small increase in population. Although technically the recession has ended, the economy continues to be in bad shape, particularly in terms of its ability to create jobs. There have been some jobs added in the last few months, but unemployment is still very high and job growth is very weak.”

Slightly more counties lost rather than added population, but the split was fairly even. In percentage terms, both increases and decreases in counties’ populations were generally very small, with no dramatic changes.

“At the state level, foreign immigration continues to be relatively strong, and the state also continues to have substantially more births than deaths, which are really the drivers of Florida’s growth in the last year,” Smith says.

The largest population gains were in some of the biggest counties. Miami-Dade led by adding an estimated 8,253 residents, followed by Hillsborough, 6,353, and Broward, 5,834. “Because they’re the largest counties, they have fairly sizeable numbers of births,” Smith says. “They also receive a substantial number of foreign immigrants.”

The county with the biggest percentage increase was Lafayette, which grew by 5.2 percent, but that change was largely attributed to the addition of state prison inmates. There was no pattern to which counties lost population, which were spread throughout the state and include both large urban counties and small rural counties.

The largest population decline was in Seminole County, which lost 3,659 residents, followed by Pinellas, 3,119, and Volusia, 2,055. In percentage terms, the county with the biggest decline was Glades, followed by Jackson and Holmes.

With a quick economic turnaround unlikely at either the state or national level, Smith expects Florida’s population to continue to grow slowly during the next year or two. But within the next 10 to 20 years, the state’s annual population growth could be as high as 250,000.

“From 2003 to 2006, Florida’s population grew by more than 400,000 per year, and in the previous three decades increases averaged about 300,000 per year, although there were certainly ups and downs from year to year,” he says.

Last year’s population decline, a result of the economic slump, was the first since 1946, when military personnel left the state at the end of World War II.

“If the economy recovers sooner than people expect, we would expect faster growth,” Smith says. “If it recovers less rapidly or even slips back into recession, we would expect that growth will continue to be very slow and possibly even be negative again.”

Between 2000 and 2010, the counties that grew the most in absolute numbers were Miami-Dade, Orange and Hillsborough. Flagler had the highest growth rate, 90.4 percent, followed by Sumter, 82.6 percent, Osceola, 59.8 percent, St. Johns, 50.6 percent, and Wakulla, 41.7 percent.

The population figures are interim estimates that will be replaced by numbers from the 2010 census when they become available early next year.

© 2010 Florida Realtors®

The point of dispute, however, is not over what the amendment would do; rather, it’s about the wording voters would read in the ballot box and whether it adequately explains what would happen should it become effective.

A lower court judge earlier removed Amendment 3 from the ballot, saying the wording misled voters. The key point of contention focused on the effective date of the property tax break – Jan. 1, 2010 – which is not mentioned in the amendment. The judge feared some voters would opt to approve it thinking, incorrectly, that they would get the tax break if it passed.

Florida Realtors earlier filed an amicus brief supporting the amendment, prepared by attorneys Vicki Weber and David Powell of Hopping, Green, and Sams.

While the Supreme Court justices did not issue a decision yesterday, few of the six justices present for oral arguments seemed inclined to place the amendment back onto the ballot. Trey Price, a Florida Realtors public policy representative, said lawyers advocating removal of Amendment 3 presented a strong case before the Supreme Court due to the omission of the effective date. A decision is expected by early September before the state prints absentee ballots.

“If Amendment 3 does, in fact, not appear on the November ballot, Florida Realtors’ State and Local Taxation Subcommittee is ready to discuss the next steps and plan for a better amendment for 2012,” Price says. “Economists are telling us that commercial property assessments are unlikely to exceed 5 percent in the coming two years, so that is somewhat good news.”

© 2010 Florida Realtors®

NEW YORK – Aug. 31, 2010 – The seemingly endless run of bad housing news is discouraging some potential homebuyers from considering a purchase. But the truth is that the advantages of homeownership have very little to do with investment gains, and a lot to do with personal comfort and satisfaction.

Here are five of them:

• Be your own landlord. The bank can only kick you out if you don’t pay; a landlord can be much less dependable – deciding to sell the property or choosing to live there themselves.

• Paying the principal is forced savings. Yes, it’s possible that home prices will fall further. It is also possible that your 401(k) will lose value. But over the long haul, both are likely to enjoy modest gains in value.

• Fixed-rate mortgages never rise – and eventually you pay them off. With mortgage rates at record lows, people who buy now are locking in real bargains.

• Good schools. Family-sized rentals are harder to come by in areas with excellent public schools.

• Spacious properties in pleasant neighborhoods. Sizable homes in attractive communities are almost always owned – not rented.

Source: The New York Times, Ron Lieber (08/27/2010)

What are the facts?

On November 2^nd, you will be asked to vote yes or no on a plan to alter Florida’s Constitution called Amendment 4. Special interest lawyers, adult entertainment interests and population control groups have designed, funded and proposed this amendment to our Constitution.  Take a moment to learn more about who’s backing Amendment 4 and why. 

What is the issue?

Amendment 4 will prolong the recession and put recovery out of reach for thousands of working Floridians.  As a result, leading business, labor, and civic groups oppose Amendment 4

What will the measure do?

This proposed change to Florida’s Constitution would require a taxpayer-funded referendum for every single change to a local government comprehensive plan.  Simply stated, Amendment 4 would force Floridians, not the representatives they elect, to decide hundreds of minor, technical comprehensive plan changes each year on issues like drainage, traffic circulation, and intergovernmental coordination.

What does that mean for you?

Here is what Amendment 4 means for you: (1) a Florida with drastically fewer jobs, (2) a significantly weaker economy, and (3) unbearably higher taxes to feed the Amendment 4 “litigation” bureaucracy.

The Florida Chamber of Commerce asked leading economists to study the impact of Amendment 4.  The study indicates that Amendment 4 would likely put more than 267,000 Floridians out of work, shrink Florida’s economic output by more than $34 billion annually, and take nearly $12 billion out of the pockets of working families.

With Florida’s jobless rate reaching well into double digits, our state’s top business and labor groups have put politics aside to oppose Amendment 4.  Mark Wilson, president of the Florida Chamber of Commerce wrote: “If you like the recession, you’ll love Amendment 4.”  Frank Ortis, executive board member with Florida’s AFL-CIO noted that “Amendment 4 will devastate Florida’s economy by costing hundreds of thousands of jobs and driving the unemployment rate even higher.”

According to the Orlando Sentinel, “The cost to local governments of [Amendment 4] would soar into the millions.” Those costs would be shouldered by Florida’s taxpayers who could expect to see not only more government waste, but also nonstop lawsuits as special interests wage war in court over the technical wording of endless ballot summaries.  Referencing a failed experiment in Amendment 4-style rule in the small Florida town of St. Pete Beach, the St. Petersburg Times wrote that Amendment 4 leads to “short-term thinking” and “invites lawsuits…”

What is the conclusion?

Florida’s jobless rate is high—but it could get much, much worse with the passage of Amendment 4.  At a time when many families and small businesses are struggling to make ends meet, that’s the last thing we need.  Please take the time to learn more about Amendment 4 by visiting www.Florida2010.org.

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